Summary:
The dollar wobbled near a seven-month low on bets the Fed will cut rates next month, with traders awaiting Chair Powell's comments on Friday.
EBC Forex Snapshot, 20 Aug 2024
The dollar wobbled near a seven-month low on Tuesday on wagers the Fed will start cutting interest rates from next month, with traders bracing for comments from Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
Markets are pricing in a 24.5% chance of a 50 bps cut in September, with a 25-bp reduction having odds of 75.5%, the CME FedWatch Tool showed. Traders are pricing in a total of 93 bps of cuts this year.
The Australian dollar traded near their one-month high although iron ore suffered hit the lowest level since 2022 last week on concern that a steel-industry crisis rippling across China will sap demand.
| Citi (as of 12 Aug) | HSBC (as of 19 Aug) | |||
| support | resistance | support | resistance | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0796 | 1.1017 | 1.0853 | 1.1125 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2613 | 1.2894 | 1.2753 | 1.3044 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8333 | 0.8827 | 0.8435 | 0.8880 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6363 | 0.6653 | 0.6446 | 0.6786 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3590 | 1.3977 | 1.3579 | 1.3860 |
| USD/JPY | 141.70 | 147.90 | 141.09 | 154.64 |
The green numbers in the table indicate that the data has increased compared with the previous time; the red numbers indicate that the data has decreased compared with the previous time; and the black numbers indicate that the data has remained unchanged.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The dollar held gains and rose slightly in Asia Monday as Japan's holiday cut liquidity, focusing attention on China's disappointing stimulus.
2024-10-14
The US dollar dipped from a two-month high but is set for a second consecutive weekly gain as weak labor market signals support faster Fed rate cuts.
2024-10-11
The US hovered near a two-month high on Thursday as markets grew confident in the Fed's patient monetary policy ahead of a key inflation report.
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