Summary:
The dollar weakened on renewed expectations of early Fed rate cuts. An unexpected fall in producer prices indicates a continued decline in inflation.
EBC Forex Snapshot
15 Jan 2024
The dollar eased on Monday as investors revived their bets of early rate cuts by the Fed. Producer prices unexpectedly fell last month, suggesting inflation would continue to subside.
Market pricing now points to a 78% chance that the central bank will begin easing rates in March, as compared to a 68% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Australian dollar remained weak due to softer inflation and iron ore dip. The commodity tumbled last week by the most in at least five months on concerns about a weakening economy of top consumer China.
| Citi (as of 8 Jan) | HSBC (as of 15 Jan) | |||
| support | resistance | support | resistance | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0833 | 1.1150 | 1.0836 | 1.1100 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2536 | 1.2848 | 1.2630 | 1.2850 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8333 | 0.8667 | 0.8377 | 0.8622 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6641 | 0.6900 | 0.6592 | 0.6824 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3177 | 1.3483 | 1.3241 | 1.3509 |
| USD/JPY | 139.48 | 144.96 | 141.29 | 147.76 |
The green numbers in the table indicate an increase in data, the red numbers indicate a decrease in data, and the black numbers indicate that the data remains unchanged.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The dollar held gains and rose slightly in Asia Monday as Japan's holiday cut liquidity, focusing attention on China's disappointing stimulus.
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The US dollar dipped from a two-month high but is set for a second consecutive weekly gain as weak labor market signals support faster Fed rate cuts.
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The US hovered near a two-month high on Thursday as markets grew confident in the Fed's patient monetary policy ahead of a key inflation report.
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