The Fed's July meeting
2023-07-21
Summary:
The Fed will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled by Reuters, with a majority still saying that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle.
The Fed's July meeting
2023.7.27(Thursday)02:00
Previous (June): 5.00-5.25% Forecast: 5.25-5.50%
What to watch for：
Is July ‘peak Fed’?
The Fed will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled by Reuters, with a majority still saying that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle.
Former Chair Ben Bernanke agreed. He said the Fed will want to see a better balance between demand and supply in the labour market before declaring victory in its fight against inflation.
Does the Fed see that underlying inflation has been less sticky?
A resilient economy and historically low unemployment well over a year since the Fed began one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaigns in history has repeatedly confounded analysts and investors.
Inflation is finally falling, with the CPI measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. That led many observers on Wall Street to conclude inflation might soon be tamed, prompting some to renew bets that rate cuts could happen by as soon as the end of 2023.
NFP - AugRisk assets fall sharply
US job growth in July slowed more than expected, raising fears of a broader economic slowdown and causing risky assets to tumble throughout the month.
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Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, as investors balanced a large US crude inventory draw and OPEC+ production delays with mixed US employment data.
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Wall St recommend long gold unanimously
Bullion steadied Thursday below $2500 after a market sell-off. It is expected to remain near this level until the NFP report is released.
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