​Markets are ready for end of rate hiking cycle

2023-07-26
Summary:

Global equity markets and U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday ahead of the Fed's expected interest rate hike and as markets awaited a stream of quarterly results from corporate heavyweights.

Global equity markets and U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday ahead of the Fed's expected interest rate hike and as markets awaited a stream of quarterly results from corporate heavyweights.


The U.S. dollar weakened, losing earlier session gains. Most market participants expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.


Oil prices rose to three-month highs as signs of tighter supplies and pledges by Chinese authorities lifted sentiment. Gold prices strengthened as the dollar fell, increasing 0.5% to $1,964.34.


Commodities

China’s top leaders pledged to step up policy support for the economy, focusing on boosting domestic demand.


The crude benchmarks have already clinched four weekly gains in a row, with supplies expected to tighten due to output cuts from the OPEC+.


Earlier-loading Brent contracts are selling above later loadings, a price structure known as backwardation indicating traders see tight supply, with the six-month spread near a 2.5-month high.


Forex

Signs of an extremely resilient U.S. economy helped the dollar recover from a recent 15-month low, as well as persistent weakness in Europe.


Still the survey from the Conference Board offered mixed signals. Consumers remain fearful of a recession over the next year following hefty interest-rate hikes from the Fed.


The euro fell for a fifth successive session as evidence of a slowdown in Europe builds after a recent survey showed demand for loans in the euro zone hitting a record low in the second quarter.

EURUSD

Oil poised to rise with potential trade deals

Oil poised to rise with potential trade deals

Thursday marked the week's final settlement before Easter, with light trading. Brent and WTI rose about 5%, their first weekly gain in 3 weeks.

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China's first-quarter GDP exceeded expectations, but US tariffs could pose a significant risk, and a reversal in exports is expected.

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