Summary:
Wall Street is bullish on the pound, expecting it to hit 1.35 by year-end and 1.40 in 12 months, though some investors are neutral on sustainability.
Sterling is set to make further gains, even after a blistering recent run, thanks to a buoyant UK economy and the BOE's caution on cutting interest rates, say investment banks.
BofA and Barclays expect the pound to rise to 1.35 by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs has a price target of 1.40 over the next 12 months. Sterling has been the best performing G10 currency this year, gaining over 5% against the dollar. It has rallied strongly since late April, when it briefly dropped below 1.23.
The gains have been fuelled by expectations that UK interest rates will remain higher than in other countries, owing to stubborn inflation in services and an economy that has been surprisingly resilient.
While the Fed delivered half a percentage point of cuts so far this year, the BoE has only lowered rates by a quarter-point in August, with just less rate reductions expected over the next six months.
UK private sector activity grew more than expected in August to its fastest pace in four months, while the OECD forecast the UK would have one of the fastest growing of the world's biggest economies this year and next.
However, some investors think sterling could soon run out of steam. Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street, said asset managers in aggregate were "neutral" on sterling.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The Singapore dollar reached a one-month high after MAS eased policy, while the dollar had its weakest week since November 2023.
2025-01-28
European shares rose to a multi-month high, but gains were limited by uncertainty over Trump’s proposed tariff measures after his inauguration.
2025-01-27
Trump's policies seek to boost oil production for lower prices and security, but shale oil is constrained by low prices and capacity limits.
2025-01-24
