Summary:
To curb surging inflation, the Fed has hiked rates 11 times since March 2022, with a September pause. Powell stays cautious about ending the battle.
The Fed's Nov meeting
02 Nov 2023
Previous(Sep)：5.50% | Forecast：5.50%
In a bid to stamp out the highest inflation in four decades, the Fed have made 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022 before a pause in Sep. But Powell is yet convinced that inflation fight is over.
The consumer price index increased 3.7% in September from a year ago, still nearly double the Fed's 2% target. Surprisingly strong retail sales and tight job market continue to signal “higher for longer” path.
The CME 'Fed Watch' tool shows markets are pricing a 26% probability of another 25bps hike in Dec. Top Fed officials indicated that rising yields could substitute for further tightening.
Oil prices remain steady but are set for a weekly gain amid concerns of oversupply, economic recovery hopes in China, and rising production.
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Sterling remained flat amid weak UK economic data and holiday trading, with a bearish outlook, though market movement remains limited.
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