Summary:
The euro jumped Monday after the French far right's election win fell short, leaving the final result dependent on party deals.
EBC Forex Snapshot, 1 Jul 2024
The euro jumped on Monday after a convincing win by the French far right in the first round of parliamentary elections fell short of some expectations, leaving the final result dependent on party deals before next weekend.
The RN could come to power through "cohabitation" with Macron and push a high-spending and euro-sceptic agenda though European financial markets breathed a sigh of relief for now.
The rise in the euro sent the dollar a touch lower after data showing US inflation cooled in May. Market pricing now points to about a 63% chance of a Fed cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
| Citi (as of 24 Jun) | HSBC (as of 28 Jun) | |||
| support | resistance | support | resistance | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0668 | 1.0916 | 1.0627 | 1.0815 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2619 | 1.2860 | 1.2545 | 1.2795 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8827 | 0.9158 | 0.8875 | 0.9044 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6564 | 0.6729 | 0.6578 | 0.6708 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3577 | 1.3846 | 1.3621 | 1.3786 |
| USD/JPY | 153.60 | 160.00 | 157.35 | 162.50 |
The green numbers in the table indicate that the data has increased compared with the previous time; the red numbers indicate that the data has decreased compared with the previous time; and the black numbers indicate that the data has remained unchanged.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The dollar held gains and rose slightly in Asia Monday as Japan's holiday cut liquidity, focusing attention on China's disappointing stimulus.
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The US hovered near a two-month high on Thursday as markets grew confident in the Fed's patient monetary policy ahead of a key inflation report.
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