Summary:
The dollar rose Monday with a subdued risk appetite. A key inflation report later in the week may clarify the Fed's interest rate path.
EBC Forex Snapshot
8 Jan 2024
The dollar edged broadly higher on Monday as risk appetite remained subdued ahead of a key inflation report later in the week that is likely to provide further clarity on the Fed’ interest rate path.
Market pricing now shows a roughly 64% chance that the Fed could begin easing rates as early as March, compared to a nearly 90% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The US labour market did not cool further as expected in Dec.
The yen shed 2.6% last week, the worst performance since June 2022. The powerful earthquake that hit Japan on New Year’s Day makes it harder to abolish negative interest rates soon.
| Citi (as of 2 Jan) | HSBC (as of 8 Jan) | |||
| support | resistance | support | resistance | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0833 | 1.1150 | 1.0831 | 1.1095 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2527 | 1.2848 | 1.2606 | 1.2826 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8333 | 0.8667 | 0.8336 | 0.8655 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6691 | 0.6900 | 0.6611 | 0.6843 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3114 | 1.3387 | 1.3225 | 1.3449 |
| USD/JPY | 139.48 | 144.94 | 141.27 | 147.01 |
The green numbers in the table indicate an increase in data, the red numbers indicate a decrease in data, and the black numbers indicate that the data remains unchanged.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The dollar held gains and rose slightly in Asia Monday as Japan's holiday cut liquidity, focusing attention on China's disappointing stimulus.
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The US hovered near a two-month high on Thursday as markets grew confident in the Fed's patient monetary policy ahead of a key inflation report.
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