Summary:
The dollar fell Monday after Fed Chair Powell warned of rising labor market risks, easing price pressures without major job losses.
EBC Forex Snapshot, 26 Aug 2024
The dollar sagged on Monday after Fed Chair Jay Powell h warned that "downside risks" to the labour market had increased. Price pressures have eased without a sharp rise in job losses.
Traders unanimously expect the central bank to kick off its loosening campaign on 18 September, but see 36.5% odds of a 50-bp reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. That's up from 25% odds a week earlier.
Sterling perched closer to its highest level since March 2022 with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey's comments that it was "too early to declare victory" over inflation signalling a less aggressive stance on rate cuts than the Fed.
| Citi (as of 19 Aug) | HSBC (as of 26 Aug) | |||
| support | resistance | support | resistance | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0796 | 1.1068 | 1.0981 | 1.1300 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2673 | 1.2946 | 1.2837 | 1.3405 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8333 | 0.8827 | 0.8374 | 0.8666 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6363 | 0.6799 | 0.6575 | 0.6903 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3597 | 1.3946 | 1.3384 | 1.3743 |
| USD/JPY | 145.89 | 150.00 | 142.11 | 148.01 |
The green numbers in the table indicate that the data has increased compared with the previous time; the red numbers indicate that the data has decreased compared with the previous time; and the black numbers indicate that the data has remained unchanged.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The dollar held gains and rose slightly in Asia Monday as Japan's holiday cut liquidity, focusing attention on China's disappointing stimulus.
2024-10-14
The US dollar dipped from a two-month high but is set for a second consecutive weekly gain as weak labor market signals support faster Fed rate cuts.
2024-10-11
The US hovered near a two-month high on Thursday as markets grew confident in the Fed's patient monetary policy ahead of a key inflation report.
2024-10-10
