Summary:
The dollar rose on weak retail sales data, hinting at Fed rate cuts; sterling climbed as UK inflation hit 2% for the first time in nearly 3 years.
EBC Forex Snapshot, 19 Jun 2024
The dollar recovered some ground on Wednesday after soft retail sales data reinforced bets of imminent Fed rate cuts, while sterling edged up as British inflation returned to 2% for the first time in nearly 3 years.
US retail sales barely rose in May and data for the prior month was revised considerably lower, suggesting that economic activity remained lacklustre in the second quarter of this year.
The Bank Of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Markets are pricing in an about 50% chance of a first rate cut by August and almost half a percentage point in monetary easing in 2024.
| Citi (as of 11 Jun) | HSBC (as of 19 Jun) | |||
| support | resistance | support | resistance | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0700 | 1.0981 | 1.0631 | 1.0880 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2300 | 1.2827 | 1.2621 | 1.2827 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8885 | 0.9158 | 0.8730 | 0.9047 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6562 | 0.6729 | 0.6585 | 0.6715 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3577 | 1.3846 | 1.3614 | 1.3805 |
| USD/JPY | 151.86 | 157.71 | 155.50 | 159.20 |
The green numbers in the table indicate that the data has increased compared with the previous time; the red numbers indicate that the data has decreased compared with the previous time; and the black numbers indicate that the data has remained unchanged.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The dollar held gains and rose slightly in Asia Monday as Japan's holiday cut liquidity, focusing attention on China's disappointing stimulus.
2024-10-14
The US dollar dipped from a two-month high but is set for a second consecutive weekly gain as weak labor market signals support faster Fed rate cuts.
2024-10-11
The US hovered near a two-month high on Thursday as markets grew confident in the Fed's patient monetary policy ahead of a key inflation report.
2024-10-10
