Summary:
The dollar steadied on Thursday, recouping some losses. Markets fully expect a 25-bp Fed rate cut next month, with a 34.5% chance of a 50-bp cut.
EBC Forex Snapshot, 29 Aug 2024
The dollar steadied on Thursday as it nursed some of its earlier losses. Markets have fully priced in a 25-bp rate cut from the Fed next month, with a 34.5% chance of a 50-bp reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The euro was off its 13-month high as the GfK consumer climate index hit its lowest level since May. The German consumer remains deeply pessimistic about economic conditions.
Europe is suffering from an innovation deficit and weak productivity, putting the region's economy on a path to stagnation, according to Nobel laureate Michael Spence.
| Citi (as of 19 Aug) | HSBC (as of 29 Aug) | |||
| support | resistance | support | resistance | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0796 | 1.1068 | 1.0952 | 1.1245 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2673 | 1.2946 | 1.2853 | 1.3396 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8333 | 0.8827 | 0.8303 | 0.8644 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6363 | 0.6799 | 0.6628 | 0.6877 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3597 | 1.3946 | 1.3362 | 1.3674 |
| USD/JPY | 145.89 | 150.00 | 142.20 | 148.16 |
The green numbers in the table indicate that the data has increased compared with the previous time; the red numbers indicate that the data has decreased compared with the previous time; and the black numbers indicate that the data has remained unchanged.
Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
The dollar held gains and rose slightly in Asia Monday as Japan's holiday cut liquidity, focusing attention on China's disappointing stimulus.
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The US dollar dipped from a two-month high but is set for a second consecutive weekly gain as weak labor market signals support faster Fed rate cuts.
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The US hovered near a two-month high on Thursday as markets grew confident in the Fed's patient monetary policy ahead of a key inflation report.
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