Summary:
After the June jobs report showed a cooling but still-hot picture of the labour market, investors are looking to a key inflation report due Wednesday for more clues on the economy’s health.
US CPI YoY June
12 July
Previous: 4% Forecast: 3.1%
After the June jobs report showed a cooling but still-hot picture of the labour market, investors are looking to a key inflation report due Wednesday for more clues on the economy’s health. But some investors say the results will likely do little to sway the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.
The labour market added just 209,000 jobs in June, below economists’ expectations for a net gain of 225,000 jobs. That’s the smallest monthly gain since a decline in December 2020. Average hourly earnings growth remained steady at 4.4% year-over-year, suggesting that wage inflation remains sticky.
Recent data has suggested that inflation is coming down, though it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Economists expect a 3.1% increase in consumer prices for the year ended in June, a cooldown from a 4% annual increase in May.
The Swiss franc rose Friday, while the euro held steady after Trump’s harsher-than-expected tariffs shook markets, driving investors to safe havens.
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February saw just 77,000 jobs added, far below the 146,000 forecast, marking the smallest gain since July amid policy uncertainty.
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Gold traded above $3,100 on Tuesday as tariff uncertainty fueled safe-haven demand, boosting inflation concerns and economic growth risks.
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