헤드 앤 숄더 패턴이란?

Head and Shoulder Top은 주식, 외환 및 기타 금융 시장의 추세 반전을 예측하는 기술적 분석을 위한 그래픽 모델입니다.사람의 머리와 어깨와 비슷한 모양으로 붙여진 이름으로, 세 개의 봉우리와 두 개의 골짜기로 이루어져 있다.어깨를 나란히 하는 패턴은 일반적으로 상승 추세의 상단에 나타나 가격이 곧 하락할 것임을 나타낸다.

숄더 톱 패턴의 형성에는 3단계가 필요하다.우선 왼쪽 어깨 단계에서는 가격이 먼저 올랐다가 하락해 첫 슬럼프를 형성했다.다음 단계는 머리 단계이다. 가격은 다시 더 높은 최고치로 오른 뒤 다시 하락해 두 번째 슬럼프를 형성한다. 보통 왼쪽 어깨의 슬럼프보다 낮다.마지막으로 오른쪽 어깨 단계에서 가격이 다시 올랐지만 머리 고점에 도달하지 못한 후 다시 하락하여 세 번째 슬럼프를 형성하는데, 보통 왼쪽 어깨의 슬럼프와 비슷하다.

The important feature of the head-shoulder top pattern is the neck line, which is a horizontal line connecting the left shoulder and the low valley of the head. When the price falls below the neckline, it is seen as an important selling signal, indicating that the price will further decline. Investors usually use the neck line of the head-to-shoulder pattern as a signal line to trigger selling or short selling.

The effectiveness of the head-shoulder-top mode depends on the integrity of its form and the confirmation of trading volume. The integrity of the pattern means that the high and low points of each stage are clearly visible and meet the shape requirements of the pattern. The confirmation of trading volume means that during the formation of the head-to-shoulder pattern, trading volume should exhibit a certain pattern, such as relatively low trading volume in the head stage.

Although the head shoulder top model is widely used in technical analysis, not all head shoulder top models can successfully predict price declines. Therefore, when using the head-shoulder-top model for trading decisions, investors should conduct comprehensive analysis based on other technical indicators and market trends to improve the accuracy and success rate of transactions.

The effectiveness of the head-shoulder-top mode lies in the breakthrough of the neck line. When the price drops below the neckline level, the pattern is confirmed, and investors usually adopt a selling strategy, expecting the price to continue to decline. The downward break of the neckline is considered an important selling signal, which can trigger more selling orders and accelerate the downward trend.

The emergence of the head-to-shoulder top model is often seen as a shift in market sentiment from buying to selling. It reflects the trend of gradually weakening long positions and increasing short positions in the market. The formation of the head-shoulder top pattern takes a certain amount of time, usually a few months, and is therefore considered a long-term trend reversal pattern.

The predictive ability of the head-shoulder-top model depends to a certain extent on the liquidity of the market and the behavior of participants. In situations with high liquidity and a large number of market participants, the head-to-shoulder top model may have stronger predictive power. However, in situations of low liquidity and fewer market participants, the effectiveness of the head-to-shoulder model may decrease.

The head-shoulder top mode is not absolutely accurate; sometimes prices may rebound before breaking through the neckline, or the downward movement of the neckline may be temporary. Investors should be cautious when using the head-to-shoulder top model and conduct comprehensive analysis in conjunction with other technical indicators and market trends to make more accurate decisions.

면책 조항: 투자는 위험과 관련됩니다.이 문서의 내용은 투자 제안이 아니며 투자 상품의 요약 또는 초대 또는 추천을 구성하지 않습니다.